The Paris Agreement has cradled the world in false security. The goal, to keep global warming below 2 degrees, is not enough. The consequences will be devastating. Instead, max 1.5 degrees should be the target but the time is too short. The world has been in an insoluble dilemma that leads to social collapse, according to a noted British science article.
The new thing is that the warnings are not about “sometime in the future” but here and now. That much is already being played out before our eyes. The new IPCC study is horrifying, the researchers determine what is to be expected at 2-degree warming.
Collapsed food supply, sharply reduced harvests in China, India and also Europe and the USA. Add to that species extinction, melting ice at the poles, wars, climate refugees and sea level rises.
No country can handle the promise
Climate change is already affecting our health and economic growth, insurance costs are going up and 2017 was near record. Europe will suffer heavy heat waves and droughts, forest fires, more frequent recurrences around the Mediterranean, western Europe, and Scandinavia.
And this within the next few decades, and is something that many who live today will be part of during their lifetime. Therefore, a tougher climate target is to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees preferred.
The answer is known in advance. No country can fulfill its promises. The emission curves continue to point upwards and if nothing is done we go towards 3 degrees of heating the globe. To their aid, politicians have now been given one of the most elaborate studies ever by the UN climate panel IPCC.
A decade to change
Following the researchers’ advice, emissions can decrease drastically in the coming decade. This is the time they have. The comprehensive IPCC study clarifies the differences between accepting 2 degrees of global warming or trying to limit it to 1.5 degrees.
Those who claim that the 1.5-degree target should apply receive strong support in the study. One of the few flashes of light is that the researchers give a slightly longer deadline than before, by 2028, emissions must turn down sharply, previously it was said in 2020.
The Paris Agreement cradled the world in false security. Not only were all commitments voluntary, but they were also too low in relation to scientific recommendations. But not even the low level of ambition will be reached.
Not even environmentally conscious countries such as Sweden, Germany or France can meet their commitments on time.
The collapse of society inevitable
In a noted scientific article “Deep Adaptation: a Map for Navigating Climate Tragedy”, British professor Jem Bendell states that a social collapse caused by the climate crisis is inevitable. He has examined the conclusions of the climate scientists. 17 of the 18 warmest years in 136 years have all occurred since 2001. The time window for doing something is shrinking fast.
An insoluble dilemma will lead to a tragedy. The study has been downloaded 5000 times since it was published in August. Jem Bendell is not afraid to create a bad mood.
He describes a world where governments must ration food, where we in Scandinavia can also suffer from malnutrition, collapsed drinking water supply and malnutrition.
His thesis is that only when people realize the inevitable, can a shock and grief reaction be followed by new political strategies.
The next step in the debate
His study represents a next step in the climate debate and it is no coincidence that it debates lively while the failure of the Paris Agreement is clear.
The political consequences of aiming for a maximum of 1.5 degrees of warming mean that all countries must now review their promises and tighten their commitments on how quickly and how much they should reduce their emissions.
To avoid the climate collapse, the world’s 200 countries must agree to phase out all use of fossil fuels by the year 2050. The curves must turn downwards within ten years.